Global transportation growth driven by manufacturing expansion, demand.

Global transportation and logistics output is expected to grow by 4.1% in 2025, with further growth of 3.7% projected for 2026. This growth is largely driven by increased business investments and manufacturing in key regions including the Americas, Asia Pacific, and Europe. Additionally, a rise in demand for trade-intensive consumer durables is anticipated, fueled by higher household purchasing power and lower financing costs.

Despite these positive growth prospects, the global transport industry faces uncertainties due to potential shifts in US tariff policy. The extent of its impact on sector performance in 2025 and 2026 remains unclear, with the risk of substantial tariff hikes leading to retaliatory measures by affected countries.

Such tariff changes, particularly in sea transport, could disrupt trade flows and dampen sector growth. The full scope of these potential impacts will depend on the evolving trade policy landscape, making it a critical factor to monitor in the coming years.

Source: Atradius